Forex Fundamental Analysis - 07 February 2008



Thursday, February 07th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have UK Industrial Production coming out. To stay safe, especially because of the Interest Rate statement coming out later on, I will use 0.4 trigger on this. If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, I would consider buying GBP/USD, looking for 35 to 40 pips. If it comes out -0.2 or lower, then I would sell GBP/USD, looking for 35 to 40 pips as well.

Thursday, February 07h, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate decision coming out. It is widely expected they will cut the rates from 5.50% to 5.25%. Right now, the market is completely priced in. The only way to trade this one is to place the trade if they do NOT cut the rate or if they do cut the rates by 50 bp. If they cut to 5.00%, then you can sell GBP/USD and expect about 50 pips price action. I would not trade GBP/JPY because the rate cut would actually help equity market relief. If it comes out at 5.50% (so no cut), I would buy GBP/USD and look for 50 pips of the price action within 15 minutes to 1 hour.

Thursday, February 07h, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EUROZONE
At 7:45 a.m. we will have Eurozone Interest Rate statement. It is widely expected they will leave the rates unchanged at 4.00%. If they cut by 25 bp which is pretty unlikely, then you can sell EUR/USD, looking for 45 to 50 pips, at least - maybe even 100 pips.

Thursday, February 07h, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) EUROZONE
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Trichet speech. In my opinion, writing it here would be very confusing for most people. If you are interested, watch the video, and make sure you know what you are doing. This is not for beginners.

Thursday, February 07h, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales. I would stay away from it.




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