Forex Fundamental Analysis - 06 February 2008



Wednesday, February 06th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Building Permits coming out. I would trade it with 5 deviation. If we get 4.5% or higher on Canadian building permits, you want to sell USD/CAD for 30 pips or so in the first 15 minutes of the report, and maybe 40 to 50 pips in the first hour. If it comes out at -5.5% or more negative, I would buy USD/ CAD and look for 30 pips in the first 15 minutes, and about 40 to 50 pips in the first hour of the report.

Wednesday, February 06th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Ivey PMI coming out. Last month it came out at -6.1 deviation and it moved almost 100 pips in the first 15 minutes so it was a huge appreciation on the USD/CAD. Although we had ISM Non-Manufacturing at the same time, it came out very close to expectations so that was a no trade. Sometimes this report is worthy 20 to 30 pips, but some other times it moves much more. It is going to come out at 47, and I am recommending using a 5 trigger on this. If it comes out at 52 or higher, you may want to sell USD/CAD and look for about 30 pips of the price action, potentially more. If it comes out at 42 or less, you may want to buy USD/CAD and look for 30 pips or more.

Wednesday, February 06th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 p.m. we will have New Zealand Unemployment Rate & Employment Change coming out. It used to be Unemployment Rate moving the market as they never announcement employment change number but they started announcing quarterly employment change since last August, and on November we saw a conflict on it, and Employment Change dominated the price action. I would trade Employment Change with 0.4% so if it comes out flat at 0.0% or lower, then sell NZD/USD looking for 30 pips of the price action. If it comes out at at 0.8% or higher, then you may want to buy NZD/USD and look for 30 pips of the price action to the upside.




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