Fundamental Analysis
Thursday, December 13th, 2007 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
At 3:30 New York time we will have Swiss Interest Rate coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.75%. About 16% of economists are expecting them to hike the rate. If they do hike to 3.00%, it will be a clear sell signal on the GBP/CHF, good for 50 to 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they leave the rate unchanged, unless you are very experienced I would recommend you stay out because the price action will all depend on comments. If they cut the rate to 2.50%, then would be a buy signal, good for 50 to 70 pips but this will not happen.
Thursday, December 13th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have a few indicators. I would skip CAD manufacturing shipments as it was not performing well at all. I would focus on the U.S. Core Retail Sales. It is expected to come at 0.6%. If it comes 0% or lower, that would be weakening U.S. dollar, and I would sell the USD/JPY because of equity correlation, good for 30 pips. On the other hand, if it comes out at 1.2% or higher, it would be strengthening U.S. dollar and equities, and I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips. If the PPI conflicts, then it may be a problem and I would consider staying out.
At 3:30 New York time we will have Swiss Interest Rate coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.75%. About 16% of economists are expecting them to hike the rate. If they do hike to 3.00%, it will be a clear sell signal on the GBP/CHF, good for 50 to 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they leave the rate unchanged, unless you are very experienced I would recommend you stay out because the price action will all depend on comments. If they cut the rate to 2.50%, then would be a buy signal, good for 50 to 70 pips but this will not happen.
Thursday, December 13th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have a few indicators. I would skip CAD manufacturing shipments as it was not performing well at all. I would focus on the U.S. Core Retail Sales. It is expected to come at 0.6%. If it comes 0% or lower, that would be weakening U.S. dollar, and I would sell the USD/JPY because of equity correlation, good for 30 pips. On the other hand, if it comes out at 1.2% or higher, it would be strengthening U.S. dollar and equities, and I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips. If the PPI conflicts, then it may be a problem and I would consider staying out.
