Forex Fundamental Analysis - 26 February 2008





Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO coming out. I don't recommend trading that.

Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Core PPI m/m. This is a quite small indicator. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. In order to move the market, we would need to have a large deviation here. I would enter a trade with 0.2 deviation on Core PPI supported by 0.5 deviation in the same direction on headline. If the core goes the other way than the headline, or headline is just as expected, probably you would want to exit the trade rather sooner than later. Having said all that, if the core PPI m/m comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would sell GBP/USD and look for about 35 pips. If it comes out at 0% or negative, you may want to buy GBP/USD and also look for 35 pips move.

Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9 a.m. we will have U.S. S&P C20 House Price Index coming out. It is expected to come out at -9.7. I would enter only on positive deviation unless there is a great opportunity to enter at negative deviation. If it comes out at -9.3 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 25 to 35 pips. I don't have a trigger for a negative deviation so I would say it would be a no trade - unless there is something crazy going on.



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