Forex Fundamental Analysis - 20 February 2008





Tuesday, February 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have BOE Minutes coming out. The consensus is between 7:2 to 9:0. Majority of economists expect, however, 9:0 vote. I think if the vote is NOT 9:0 but 6:3 or 7:2, it would be worthy to buy GBP/USD. For 8:1 or 9:0 it would be a no trade. There is no sell opportunity for this report unless you know how to analyze the commentary.

Tuesday, February 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI X Food & Energy m/m, and Building Permits and House Starts. My only concern is if we get dollar weakening CPI number and good numbers from the housing market (positive deviation of 100 or more), then it may move the market the other way. Let's assume there is no major conflict. If the CPI comes out at 0.3% or higher, I think it would be a sell opportunity for GBP/USD. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, it would be a buy opportunity for the GBP/USD. Either case, I would look for 40 to 50 pips or more in the first 1 hour of the report.

Tuesday, February 20th, 2008 (2:00 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2 p.m. we will have U.S. FOMC Minutes. This is not for beginners. If you are interested to trade it, watch the video.

Tuesday, February 20th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 7:30 p.m. we will have some wage data out of Australia. I will skip this one.



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