Forex Fundamental Analysis - 19 February 2008



Tuesday, February 19th, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 3:30 a.m. we will have Swedish CPI. You would need to have USD/SEK or EUR/SEK to trade this; if you don't have such pairs, skip this report. There are 4 numbers coming out: CPI Underline Inflation m/m and y/y, and CPI Headline m/m and y/y. I will focus on Underline Inflation y/y. If it comes out at 2.5% or higher, I would sell EUR/SEK. If it comes out at 2.1% or lower, I would buy EUR/SEK. I would expect at least 300, most likely 400 to 500 pips on a tradable deviation. Keep in mind that such pairs make a lot of pips but there is very little money per pip.

Tuesday, February 19th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have CAD Core CPI m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and I would expect 30 to 40 pips on initial spike, and 50 to 55 pips total in the first hour of the report. If it comes out -0.1%, I would buy USD/CAD and look for same targets. Avoid conflicts on headline m/m and core m/m as when it conflicts, it may move a little and then change the direction completely.

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