Forex Fundamental Analysis - 13 February 2008




Wednesday, February 13th, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 3:30 a.m. we are going to have Sweden Interest Rate statement. It is expected to come out at 4%. If they hike, you want to sell EUR/SEK, if they cut, you may buy EUR/SEK.

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Average Earnings (without bonus). It is expected to come out at 3.9%. If it comes out at 4.1% or higher, I would be worth to buy GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 3.7% or lower, then I would sell GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips in the first hour.

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have BOE quarterly inflation report. It may move market but if you are unexperienced, stay away from it.

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Retail Sales X Autos coming out. Last time we were trading it with 0.5 trigger and it worked beautifully with USD/JPY but GBP/USD and EUR/USD had tough moves. This time I will be using 0.5 trigger again, and again I will focus on USD/JPY. It is expected it will come out at 0.2%. If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at -0.3% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY. When the trigger is hit, I would expect 35 pips of price action but it can be much more after a few hours, like last month we saw over 100 pips move.

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008 (6:50 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
At 6:50 p.m. we will have GDP out of Japan which I don't recommend to trade.

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change. Be aware of any possible conflicts here. It is expected that the employment change will come out at 15K. If it comes out at 30K or higher, I would buy AUD/USD. If it comes out at 0K or negative, I would sell AUD/USD. If the trigger is hit, I would look for 30 to 40 pips ore more of price action



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