Forex Fundamental Analysis - 11 February 2008




Monday, February 11th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) Norway
First, we will have Norway CPI y/y. If you have never traded Norway or Swedish reports, don't worry too much about it. You can use 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at 3.9% or higher, you want to sell USD/NOK or EUR/NOK. If it comes out 3.3% or lower, you can buy USD/NOK or EUR/NOK. Keep an eye on the underline inflation that is expected to be at 2.1%. When the trigger is hit, expect 300 to 400 pips move but keep in mind that spreads are higher so you must trade a few times smaller lot sizes on these reports. Do NOT trade it if you don't know what you are doing. If it is your first time, either trade very small or just observe.

Monday, February 11th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Trade Balance coming out. It is expected to come out at -740 M (-7.4 B). We will also PPI coming at the same time. To be honest, I would skip this report unless you can process everything quickly. You need to have everything in one direction in order to enter the trade, and by the time everything is coming out, it may be too late to enter the trade. UK Trade Balance on its own has been performing poorly lately, and the PPI has never been in focus at all. I would leave this alone.



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