Forex Fundamental Analysis - 24 January 2008




Thursday, January 24th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO. I would not trade this, leave it alone.

Thursday, January 24th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. we will have the U.S. Unemployment Claims coming out, and it is one of the rising stars now. It is expected to come out at 320 K. It is the best to trade 20 K trigger so if it comes out at 340 K or higher, it is more unemployment so it is bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell USD/JPY. If it comes out 300 K or lower, that's less unemployment and good for the dollar, and I would buy the USD/JPY. If the trigger is hit, I would expect 30 to 35 pips or more of the price action.

Thursday, January 24th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales coming out of the U.S. If we get a shockingly low number, it will not really move the market like it used to. What people are looking for is if there is any sign of recovery here. You should just trade the upside trigger; the downside trigger may or may not work. Last week the housing market indicator had a huge sell signal and it completely went the other way. It is expected to come out at 4.95 M. I would trade a 0.2 trigger so if it comes out at 5.15 M or more positive, that should be good for the U.S. dollar and the equity, and I would buy USD/JPY.

Thursday, January 24th, 2008 (6:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
Then at 6:30 p.m. we will have Tokyo CPI X Fresh Food y/y. It is expected to come out at 0.3, and last time it came out 0.3 as well. I would use 0.2 deviation on this. If it comes out at 0.5 or higher, I would sell USD/JPY (40 pips price action) or EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. If it comes out at 0.1 or lower, I would buy USD/JPY or EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY and expect 40 pips price action on USD/JPY.



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