Forex Fundamental Analysis - 23 January 2008




Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK GDP as well as BOE Minutes. Because M. King spoke today at 3.10 and said enough about inflation like it may be over 3%, a lot of people think they will not do an emergency cut, implying they are going to cut but not an emergency cut. This makes the Minutes a little less important than usually it is. However, if they vote 9-0 to hold the rates steady on January 10, that would be bullish for the British pound, and if they voted 5-4, then it would be weakening for the pound. We will also have the GDP indicator at the same time. Last time the BOE Minutes dominated; this time, I think, the GDP may be more important. However, you have to look at the whole picture and try to get a good sense what is going on. Even 0.1 trigger is significant on the advanced GDP out of the UK but to be safe due to BOE Minutes coming out at the same time, I would trade 0.2 trigger. If the GDP q/q comes out at 0.7% or higher, we should see GBP/USD going up by 40 to 50 pips (assuming there is no conflict with the BOE Minutes), and it if comes out at 0.3% or lower, that would be weakening the GBP/USD, and it should drop by 40 to 50 pips in the first hour (if there is no conflict).

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 3:00 p.m. we are going to have New Zealand Interest Rate statement. They are expected to keep the rates steady at 8.25%. If they cut the rates, you can sell NZD/USD and look for 50 to 70 pips price action. If the price drops a lot before the report, you may consider buying NZD/USD if there is no cut, and I would take quick 20 pips only. If they hike the rates, then of course you can buy NZD/USD, and expect 50 to 70 pips price action. The real potential is if they either hike or cut, no change can be tradable only if there is a big down move right before the report.


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