Forex Fundamental Analysis - 18 January 2008

Friday, January 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK

On Friday we are going to have UK Retal Sales coming out. I would be conservative here although UK reports performed quite well in the past. Last few weeks we had a few UK reports that came out very close to expectations so the London session has not really been tested; the weird price action was happening during New York session. I still think there is a good chance this report should go well. Also, out of 12 reports, there were two 0.1 deviations that were definitely not tradable. There is also one 0.6 deviation that did not work well as it went up by 25 pips and then it went the other direction. Every other report even with 0.2 deviation worked really well with a very profitable price action, and that was 9 trades like that so it is hard for me to be pessimistic here. You can try to trade 0.2 deviation but I will use 0.3 deviation here. If the UK Retail Sales m/m comes out at 0.5 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect at least 35 pips and 50 pips, respectively. If it comes out at -0.1 or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect the same targets.

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