At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Housing Starts. It is expected to come out at 1.15 M (1150 K). Out of all housing indicators this indicator is the most powerful one. I think the lower number is kind of priced in since people are expecting lower numbers so I would be a little bit more conservative on the sell and a little more aggressive on the buy signal. If it comes out at 1.2 M (1200 K) or higher, that should be a good buy signal on USD/JPY, looking for about 30 to 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 1.05 M (1050 K) or lower, I think that would signal much more negativity than expected and it would be a good signal on sell, and I would look for 30 to 40 pips or more on the USD/JPY.
Thursday, January 17th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. we will have Bernanke speaking. It is something you can be aware of. It is hard to say what may surprise the market so I don't recommend trading his speech.
Thursday, January 17th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 p.m we will have New Zealand Retail Sales coming out. I would be very careful because it is right before the 5 p.m. New York close, and I think it is one of the reasons the New Zealand trade did not work today. Because of that, I would trade a little bit more conservative trigger than usually. Normally 0.4 to 0.5 trigger would be good enough but we recently had 0.7 trigger at 4:45 p.m. and the move was quite weak: about 25 pips. Let's play save here so I would use 0.8 trigger. If it comes out at 1.7% or higher, it would be a buy signal on New Zealand dollar, looking for 30 to 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, it would be a sell signal on New Zealand dollar causing 30 to 40 pips move in the first hour of the report.