Fundamental Analysis
Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Monday we will have the UK Manufacturing PMI coming out at 4:30 a.m. New York time. This indicator has had very ugly history recently as the market did not care too much about it so I would just skip this indicator.
Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10 a.m. New York time will will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index coming out. This is a tough one because for the last 3 months as the manufacturing indicators have not been mattering what we had was readings very close to consensus so it is hard to judge what kind of market reaction it will do to this indicator. Probably this is the most important manufacturing indicator in the world because it is so old and so reputable. The forecast is 50.5, and I will go more conservative on this one. If the reading is 53 or higher, I would go short on GBP/USD and expect a move of 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If on the other hand we see a reading of 48 or lower, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would possibly go long on GBP/USD and expect a move of about 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Don't get desperate on this one; try to get an entry after the initial spike within 10 pips of the pre-release price, maybe even less - depending on the price action.
Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Retail Sales together will building approvals coming out of Australia. The consensus is not posted yet, previously we saw reading of 0.8% so I will assume the consensus would be to the lower end this month, maybe 0.3% or so. On Monday before the report look at the consensus. Whatever the consensus is, add 0.4 for a possible buy on AUD/USD, and subtract 0.4 for a possible sell on AUD/USD. So if it comes out higher than expected by 0.4%, I would go long on AUD/USD and expect a move of about 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out worse by -0.4% or more negative, I would go short on AUD/USD and expect a move of 40 pips or less in the first hour of the report.
On Monday we will have the UK Manufacturing PMI coming out at 4:30 a.m. New York time. This indicator has had very ugly history recently as the market did not care too much about it so I would just skip this indicator.
Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10 a.m. New York time will will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index coming out. This is a tough one because for the last 3 months as the manufacturing indicators have not been mattering what we had was readings very close to consensus so it is hard to judge what kind of market reaction it will do to this indicator. Probably this is the most important manufacturing indicator in the world because it is so old and so reputable. The forecast is 50.5, and I will go more conservative on this one. If the reading is 53 or higher, I would go short on GBP/USD and expect a move of 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If on the other hand we see a reading of 48 or lower, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would possibly go long on GBP/USD and expect a move of about 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Don't get desperate on this one; try to get an entry after the initial spike within 10 pips of the pre-release price, maybe even less - depending on the price action.
Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Retail Sales together will building approvals coming out of Australia. The consensus is not posted yet, previously we saw reading of 0.8% so I will assume the consensus would be to the lower end this month, maybe 0.3% or so. On Monday before the report look at the consensus. Whatever the consensus is, add 0.4 for a possible buy on AUD/USD, and subtract 0.4 for a possible sell on AUD/USD. So if it comes out higher than expected by 0.4%, I would go long on AUD/USD and expect a move of about 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out worse by -0.4% or more negative, I would go short on AUD/USD and expect a move of 40 pips or less in the first hour of the report.
