Forex Fundamental Analysis - 30 November 2007


Friday, November 30th, 2007 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
First, we will have Swiss CPI y/y which is expected to come out at 1.5% versus 1.3%. I think if it comes out at 1.3%, same as last quarter, USD/CHF may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it reads 1.7% or higher, I think USD/CHF may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Swiss CPI y/y
* Buy on USD/CHF if the number will be 1.3% or lower
* Sell on USD/CHF if the number will be 1.7% or higher

Friday, November 30th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then we will have Canadian GDP coming out at 8:30 a.m. The market is mostly talking about annualizing reading which is expected to come out at 2.2%; however, the m/m reading is also important. In my opinion, I would watch the m/m reading and make sure the annual does not conflict. If the m/m reads at 0.4% or higher, I think USD/CAD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report, and EUR/CAD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If on the other hand we will see a reading of -0.1% or more negative, I think the USD/CAD may possibly gain 30 pips or more, and EUR/CAD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

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