Forex Fundamental Analysis - 24 October 2007

Fundamental Analysis

Wednesday, October 24th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at 5.29 M. If the reading is below 5 M, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading is 5.51 M or above, it would be a better reading than the previous month, and that would be a nice surprise considering a bad situation with the real estate market so this reading may drive GBP/USD down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Be careful with this indicator, GBP/USD is at really high level right now. I would be very careful on longs, and in addition to that, everyone is really expecting a very bad real estate condition. Even a positive deviation may not convince people enough to sell GBP/USD, and at the same time, a highly negative deviation may be very much expected and priced in. Just be careful on this trade.

Wednesday, October 24th, 2007 (4:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then at 4 p.m. New York time we will have interest rate statement coming out of New Zealand. Under normal circumstances we would trade this; however, right now absolutely nothing is happening in New Zealand as Bollard mentioned they are not planing to do anything with interest rates, and the inflation would be slowed due to so many increases interest rates this year. Then we saw the CPI lower than it was expected, and we saw retail sales very close to expectations. It is unanimously expected they will keep the rates unchanged, and there is no reason for Bollard to give a speech either. I think this indicator will be a waste of time, very low probability that anything will happen so I will be skipping this one.

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