Forex Fundamental Analysis - 23 October 2007


Fundamental Analysis



Tuesday, October 23rd, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
On Tuesday we will have 2 indicators that I feel are worthy watching and possibly trading. We will have retail sales coming out of Canada at 8:30 a.m. New York time. I will be focusing on the core retail sales that is expected to come out at 0.3%. If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, I think USD/CAD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if they came out at 0.0% or negative, I think USD/CAD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Obviously, watch out for any revisions and conflict on the headline number. If there is no significant conflict, I would try to get in within 7 or 10 pips of the pre-release price, and try to get 20 to 25 pips profit with about 15 pips SL.

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2007 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian CPI coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.9%. If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, I think AUD/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, a reading of 0.6% or below, would mean that AUD/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. We may easily see 40 pips move even if the deviation is 0.2% either direction. We may see much larger move if the deviation is bigger. 0.2 deviation either direction can cause a move of 30 to 35 pips.

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