Commentary - We wrote last week that " wave c of B is expected to test at least the 61.8% of 251.10-219.30 at 238.95 and possibly the 78.6% at 244.29 before a top and reversal." Wave c towards at least 238.95 may be underway now. It is also possible that a triangle is unfolding from 235.50 but this pattern is still near term bullish as a pullback would likely occur before a terminal thrust towards 238.95 completes the correction from 219.30.
Strategy - Look to get bearish close to 238.95-244.29 for a drop below 219.30
Commentary- The GBPCHF tested the trendline drawn off of the July 2006, march 2007, and August 2007 lows again this week. Still, we remain bearish given the decline from 2.4426 taking on an impulsive look (5 waves). A corrective rally may be unfolding now and resistance is at 2.4185. As long as price is below 2.4426, the near term bias is bearish.
trategy- Remain bearish against 2.4426, target below 2.3288.
Commentary - The GBPAUD structure is not especially clear so we are taking a look at the weekly. The August high at 2.5638 pierced a trendline drawn off of the September 2001 and August 2002 highs and the monthly shows the break of an 18 year trendline. This evidence favors the downside longer term. For the time being, those wishing to trade the GBPAUD may want to range trade between primarily 2.3100 and 2.5500.
Strategy - Flat