Forex Fundamental Analysis - 29 January 2008




Tuesday, January 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we are going to have U.S. Durable Good X Transportation (Core) m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.0% or 0.1% according to some other sources. Based on the current situation, I recommend trading it with 1.5 to 2.5 trigger, and I would trade EUR/USD this time. Well, let's say if it comes out at 2% or higher, it would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell EUR/USD looking for 30 to 40 pips price action in the first hour of the report. If it comes out low, at -2% or even more negative, I would then buy EUR/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips price action in the first hour. This report is "hit or miss" type. If it comes out against a strong trend, then I would not recommend taking the trade on given pair and I would look for an alternative pair such as USD/JPY or USD/CHF (don't forget to flip triggers for USD based pairs as the trigger is provided for EUR/USD) or GBP/USD. Just try to pick a pair that will let you go with the trend if the trigger is hit.

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m we will have U.S. National HPI Composite-20 y/y coming out. It is expected to come out at -7.0% or even -7.1%. If it comes out at -7.3% or more negative, it is going to be bad enough to create some weakness, and I would sell the USD/JPY or buy EUR/USD, whatever is more appropriate at the time the news is given. On either pair I would expect 25 to 35 pips price action. If it comes out -6.7% or less negative, that would be good for the dollar so I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD, looking for 25 to 35 pips of price action as well.



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