Fundamental Analysis
Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.3%. I think we need to be more conservative on this report and use 5.0 trigger. If it comes out at 4.7% or higher, that would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and I would buy USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips move or more. If it comes out at -5.3 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect a move of 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade 0.4 trigger on this one. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, that would be very positive for the AUD so you can buy AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move or more. Last month the number really overreacted and we saw 77 pips move on -0.4 deviation but in earlier releases sometimes you got a little more than 20 pips so be careful despite of December release. I think 30 pips is a good expectation - if you get more, great.
At 10 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.3%. I think we need to be more conservative on this report and use 5.0 trigger. If it comes out at 4.7% or higher, that would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and I would buy USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips move or more. If it comes out at -5.3 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect a move of 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade 0.4 trigger on this one. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, that would be very positive for the AUD so you can buy AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move or more. Last month the number really overreacted and we saw 77 pips move on -0.4 deviation but in earlier releases sometimes you got a little more than 20 pips so be careful despite of December release. I think 30 pips is a good expectation - if you get more, great.
