Forex Fundamental Analysis - 21 Desember 2007


Fundamental Analysis



Friday, December 21st, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m New York time we will have UK Retail Sales m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. I recommend you to trade 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, GBP/USD may go down about 40 pips. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, GBP/USD may move up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

Friday, December 21st, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have a few reports coming out: Canadian GDP and Retail Sales. I would focus on the Headline Retail Sales. For some reasons, the headline was moving market a little bit better recently. I would trade it with a 0.6 trigger so if it comes out at -0.9 or more negative, that would be a buy USD/CAD signal. If it comes out at 0.3 or higher, that would probably be a sell USD/CAD signal. Look for 30 to 35 pips either direction if the trigger his hit. The retails sales is in general more powerful than the GDP; however, if the GDP hits a 0.2 trigger from 0.1 expected, this would be tradable too. So if Canadian Retail Sales comes out as expected, then if GDP comes out at 0.3 or higher, it would be a sell USD/CAD signal, and a -0.1 or more negative reading would be a buy USD/CAD signal.

Friday, December 21st, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Also at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Core PCE m/m coming out. This one deviates very rarely. However, if it does deviate by 0.2, it should create a significant dollar move. It happens maybe one a year so it is not very likely to happen; however, if it does happen, then, I think, it would be worth trading. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, then it would be a sell GBP/USD signal. If it comes out at 0 or negative, it would be a buy GBP/USD signal. If the trigger is hit, expect a 40 pips move either way.

To sum up, focus first on the Canadian Retail sales, then on the Canadian GDP, and then on the U.S. Core PCE m/m.

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