Forex Fundamental Analysis - 06 Desember 2007


Fundamental Analysis



Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m New York time we will have UK Industrial Production coming out which is expected at 0.2%. If it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if we see Industrial Production coming out at 0.6% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This indicator is a tricky one, and we may see a bigger move but be careful on this one, and try to get your entries as close to pre-release price as possible. If you cannot do that, don't chase it.

Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
Then at 7 a.m. New York time we will have UK Interest Rate Statement coming out. This is going to be a hot indicator. About 70% economists expect UK to keep the rate unchanged at 5.75%, and there is quite a few people that expect them to cut the rate. If the UK cuts the rate to 5.50%, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if they keep the rate unchanged, and there is no statement, we may see GBP/USD recover by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they keep the rate unchanged but there is a statement that they are planning to cut in the future, then skip this report as it would be a no trade as there can be a very ugly price action.

Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
Then at 7:45 a.m. New York time we will have Euro Zone Interest Rate Statement. It is expected they are going to keep it unchanged. Most likely nothing will happen here.

Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have Trichet speaking. Be aware of some price actions at this time but unless you are able to watch this report and be able to make decisions on the fly, I do not have any trade plan for you right now. All will depend on what he says.

Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (6:50 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
Then at 6:50 p.m. we will have Japanese GDP coming out which is a revision of the number that has already come out. Most likely nothing will happen here. Even if there is a deviation, Yen does not move on this revisions too much. However, be aware of higher spreads but I do not think there is going to be any trading opportunity there.

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