Forex Fundamental Analysis - 05 Desember 2007


Fundamental Analysis



Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI. I think this indicator is worth watching and possibly trading. It is expected to come out at 52.7. If it reads at 55 or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if this indicator reads at 50.5 or below, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Services PMI
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 55.0 or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 50.5 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment. It is expected to read at 50,000 versus 106 K last month. If it reads at 0 or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report simply because it would be a negative reading for the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, if we see a reading of 100 or above then we may see GBP/USD going down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: ADP Non-Farm Employment
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0 or negative
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 100 or more
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report

Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we will have New Zealand Interest Rate Statement coming out. It is expected they will keep the rate unchanged, and start cutting rates towards first quarter of 2008. If they drop their dovish tone, and talk about possibility to do more hikes, then NZD/USD may possibly gain 100 pips or more in the first 3 hours of the report. On the other hand, if they say need to cut the rates quicker than it was thought previously, NZD/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If there are no comments, or comments are the same or neutral, then it is a no trade here.

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