Forex Fundamental Analysis - 02 November 2007


Fundamental Analysis



Friday, November 2nd, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7 a.m. New York time we will have Canadian Employment Change. It is expected to read about 12 K versus 51.1 K last month. I think if it reads 0 or negative, it would be a pretty surprising reading, and I think USD/CAD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if we see a reading of 30 K or above that would be a relatively high reading, and based on that I think USD/CAD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Of course, much larger deviations may cause even bigger moves.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Employment Change
* Buy on USD/CAD if the number will be 0 or negative
* Sell on USD/CAD if the number will be 30 K or higher
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report.

Friday, November 2nd, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll coming out. It is expected to come out at 82 K. If it reads 120 K or more, that would be even better reading than last month, and it would signify a relatively OK employment market in the U.S., and we may see GBP/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if it reads 40 K or below, I think based on that GBP/USD may possibly go up 50 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report because that would be bad for the U.S. dollar.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Non-Farm Payroll
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 120 K or more
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 40 K or worse
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the 30 minutes of the report.

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