|Bias:||I still favor a move to 117.12-29 but would respect a drop below 116.16|
|Daily Bullish:||We have seen a break of 116.45 which saw price stall at 116.26. I also see support at 116.16 and while this area holds there is still risk of one additional rally that should press back above 116.55 and 116.76 to test the key resistance at 117.12 and maximum 117.29. At this point, assuming momentum conditions have worsened I'd expect a high to develop in this area. Thus only above 117.29 would see extension to 118.00 minimum with 118.93 the next major barrier.|
|MT Bullish:||With the triangle (possibly) having broken down we could be talking a flat correction. Thus only a move above 117.12-28 would suggest the next leg higher is underway & provide gains through to 120.25. (2nd October)|
|Daily Bearish:||The pullback from 116.76 has been enough to suggest we should see a top quite soon. However, while 116.16 supports there is risk of an initial rally to 117.12-29. Watch this carefully. While it caps I feel the greater risk will be back to the 116.16-26 area initially. Any earlier breach of the 116.16 level should imply direct losses which should move towards the 115.27 corrective low.|
|MT Bearish:||Weekly cycles do seem to be pushing price higher now. If we are to see a test of 112.58 again then we require the 117.12-19 area cap. Back below 116.00 and then 114.00 triggers losses. (4th October)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The slowing of the rally has begun to suggest the possibility of either a larger flat correction in Wave (ii) or an expanded flat in Wave (b). The barrier is at 117.12 for the former (or close to) and if a peak is seen there then the larger implication is a return to 112.58. To be honest, the more time that passes, the more this scenario becomes less attractive as the Wave (ii) just seems much too long.
The alternatives are the expanded flat in Wave (b) which implies a peak at 117.19-28 followed by a return to the 113.98 low again.
Only direct gains above 117.30 will trigger a rally to the 223.6% projection in Wave -iii- at 118.93.
By: Ian Copsey
Global Forex Trading