Forex Fundamental Analysis - 17 October 2007


Fundamental Analysis



Wednesday, October 17th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Wednesday at 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have BOE minutes coming out. I think nothing will happen during this minutes. This time the vote is totally not important. If the vote was 9:0, 8:1 or 7:2 when they did not raise the rate last time, it does not make any difference now. What we want to look at is for any comments or any discussions of a possible cut. I don't think last meeting was early enough for that but if in the last meeting there was at least one member who voted for a rate cut, or anything mentioning about the rate cut, then GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If nobody mentioned anything about cuts, I would skip this indicator. This month (today) the inflation did read very low so most likely there is going to be a talk about rate cuts during next meeting. Two weeks ago probably there was not enough data that would warrant such discussion (a possible rate cut) but if someone voted for a rate cut, then it would be a sell on GBP/USD.

Wednesday, October 17th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. CPI and Housing Starts. Most economists expect that CORE CPI will read either 0.2% or 0.1%. The Core CPI is the most important indicator here; however, housing starts can be even more important if the deviation is big but usually it does not deviate that much. If the Core CPI reads 0.3% and there is no big conflict with housing starts, GBP/USD may go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if core CPI reads flat, 0% or negative and there is no big conflict with housing starts, we may possibly see GBP/USD gaining 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Also, if the CPI is steady and the housing starts will come out at 1 M or below, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the housing starts comes out at 1.5 M or above, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report - because that would signify some recovery on the housing market. I would not trade the spike on this one; instead, I would wait and see the numbers, and then make a trading decision once all the numbers are released. You can use ForexBastards calendar to get the numbers; they will be 10 to 15 seconds delayed but you do not need them the same second unless you want to trade the spike. Wait for the retracement, and then try to enter within about 15 to 20 pips of the prerelease price.

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