Daily Forex Market Commentary


The holidays in Japan, the US and Canada couldn't prevent the dollar from recovering across the board on Monday after being obliterated a day earlier. The dollar should attempt to pad its recovery today.


Euro/dollar

Following its aggressive recovery on Friday, the euro/dollar fell on Monday in line with the bearish reversal signal on a weekly basis. So far it's stuck in an inside range. Once again, at least in the short term the pair, which remains overbought in the medium term, should head lower. The uptrend is in trouble here.

Euro/dollar has initial support at 1.3995. Only a break below 1.3965 would confirm that a peak is in place. 'Next level is 1.3935. Distant support looms at 1.3795.

Immediate resistance is at 1.4105. A move above 1.4185 would negate the pullback. Above 1.4281, strong resistance is seen only at 1.4400.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied to a new seven-week high on Monday and it should march higher still.

Immediate resistance is seen at 117.50. Above 117.85 there is distant resistance at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.

Strong support remains at 116.85 from another 50-point pivot that targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed


Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell on Monday but was stuck in an inside range. So far, the uptrend remains in place, but the short-term is negative.

Immediate support is still seen at 2.0315. Next level is at 2.0275. Distant support comes at 2.0150.

Initial resistance is at 2.0425. The next cp floats at 2.0470. Strong resistance comes at 2.0530. If this level gives way, look for a test of the pivotal high at 2.0654.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss rallied to its lowest level since September 19 and the pair should climb further.

Initial resistance is at 1.1865. Above 1.1935, distant resistance is at 1.2005.

Immediate support is at 1.1825. This is followed by 1.1740 and 1.1695. Below 1.1585, there is distant support at 1.1495.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

By: Cornelius Luca
Global Forex Trading


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