Commentary - We remain long term bulls of the AUDCAD and a bullish bias is warranted against .8510. The bullish objectives are not until .9681 and 1.0531 (100% and 161.8% ext. of .8119-.9514/.8271). This rally is expected to play out for the next 6 to 8 months or so. The rally from .8510-.8892 is wave i of 3 of larger 1 in a 5 wave bull cycle from .8271. The market is in a position that often leads to near vertical moves. Wave ii of 3 of larger 1 is underway now and we are expecting it to bottom near the 61.8% of .8510-.8892 at .8656. A drop to this level presents an opportunity to jump aboard what should be an exciting ride.
Commentary - We wrote last week that "it looks probable that we'll see a push through 107.70 prior to a top and reversal. Based on where the rally is in its structure, there is a good chance that the advance from here is choppy as the rest of the rally unfolds in a series of 4th and 5th waves." The pair continues to march higher. Very near term, a push through 105.77 is expected to complete 9 waves up from 92.20 (9 waves is a derivation of 5….whether 1,3,or 5 is extended does not matter…all we know is that one is extended). The high should prove marginal and give way to a corrective decline in larger wave iv within the 5 wave rally from 91.73. Wave iv higher would then complete wave 3 within the 5 wave cycle from 85.98. In summary, higher prices are expected but the rally is likely to price choppy.
Strategy - Remain bullish, move risk to 101.63 (from 98.40), target 107.70
Commentary - We wrote last week that "we favor a deeper correction to 1.1331 before proclaiming wave 2 complete. A cautious bullish stance is warranted against 1.1592 regardless." Because it is possible that the rally from 1.1592 is unfolding as a series of 1st and 2nd waves, remain bullish against 1.1605. Still, we would not be surprised if the rally from 1.1592 turned out to be wave B in a larger A-B-C from 1.2031. If a larger correction unfolds, then we will have the opportunity to enter long at a better price.
Strategy - Remain bullish, move risk to 1.1605 (from 1.0906), targeting above 1.2030 (much higher)