Technical Analysis 24 September 2007

Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar remains under pressure versus the European currencies while dollar/yen made a mild recovery. Given that the pound rallied more and formed a bearish reversal against the euro, all eyes will be on this European cross. Elsewhere, shorting yen on the crosses remains in favor.


Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar edged up to a new all-time high the day on Friday. The overbought pair should see some pullback on profit taking before the next move higher. However, sell only on a stop loss basis.

Above 1.4140, strong resistance is seen only at 1.4260. Next resistance is pegged at 1.4305.

Below 1.4050, euro/dollar has support at 1.3980. The next level is 1.3895.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen traded climbed up on Friday and long euro/yen and carry trades remain favored.

Immediate resistance is seen at 115.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00. The next big level is 116.85 from another 50-point pivot that target: 116.35 and 117.35.

Initial support now comes at 114.70. Strong support is at 114.20 from another 50-point pivot that targets 113.70 and 114.70.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/Dollar

Sterling/dollar made an aggressive recovery from a one-month low of 1.9880 that was reached on Tuesday. It was a tough upmove, which consisted of three strong up days and two sizeable down days. Cable is approaching the tip of a symmetrical triangle and should remain only mildly strong - it still is the weakest of the European currencies.

Above 2.0215, strong resistance follows at 2.0280. If this level gives way, look for a test of the pivotal high at 2.0332.

Immediate support is seen at 2.0160. A break below the 2.0055 level would signal a retest of the 2.0000 mark.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

The oversold dollar/Swiss remains soft after sinking to a 2 ½-year low of 1.1679 on Friday. Hold short positions and buy only a stop loss

Below 1.1679, there is support at 1.1655. Next level is 1.1570. Distant support follows at 1.1495.

Initial resistance is at 1.1770. This level is followed by 1.1850. Distant resistance is at 1.1935.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Cornelius Luca
Global Forex Trading



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