Technical Analysis 20 September 2007

AUDUSD

Price: 0.8581

Resistance: 0.8594 0.8616 0.8642 0.8662
Support: 0.8552 0.8530 0.8490 0.8456

GFT Forex

Bias: While 0.8587-94 caps I look for losses back to 0.8385-00

Daily Bullish: The downside stalled just above the 0.8473-86 support and has provoked the expected rally to the 0.8587 target which was seen earlier this morning. There is also a small target at 0.8594 and I expect this area to cap and cause losses. Thus a more bullish stance will require a break above 0.8595 which would then generate further upward momentum for a test close to the 0.8662 corrective high.
MT Bullish The cap at 0.8458 appears to suggest a little more should be seen on the upside. The 0.8251-74 area should support and may cause a sideways consolidation before rallying to the 0.8587 area. (18th September)
Daily Bearish: The 0.8587 target was achieved earlier this morning. We should allow for 0.8594 but overall I expect the Aussie to fall back. A break back below 0.8550 will assist and allow the downside to progress towards 0.8530 and then the 0.8490-00 area which should cause a pullback. Much below there would appear to open the way for a larger fall to 0.8385-00.
MT Bearish: We should now see a test of 0.8587 which should cap for larger losses, initially to 0.8370-85 and then to 0.8320 at least. (19th September)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

GFT Forex

19th September

We appear to be on target for a test of the 76.4% projection in Wave v at 0.8587 where price will have retraced 76.4% from 0.7672.

20th September

The 0.8587 target was reached this morning and we need only allow for a small wave equality target in the Wave c of Wave v at 0.8594.

This should then trigger a correction initially to the Wave b of minor Wave v at 0.8490-00 and subsequently to the Wave b of the Wave v shown in the chart at 0.8385.

Ian Copsey


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