The dollar rallied versus the pound in the wake of the developments in the UK. Carefully buying yen crosses and selling pound crosses should work, but shouldn't last long because the European currencies are overstretched.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar made little progress on Friday, but the overbought pair didn't form a bearish reversal. The downside is still favored.
Below 1.3840, euro/dollar now has support at 1.3790. This is followed by 1.3720 and 1.3635. Only a break below 1.3600 would signal the start of a downmove.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.3927. Next resistance is pegged at 1.3955. Above 1.4000 there is distant resistance at 1.4085.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen only edged higher on Friday, as the upmove seems limited. Only a close above 115.80 signals further strength.
Strong resistance is seen at 115.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00. Distant resistance is at 117.10.
Strong support is at 114.20 from another 50-point pivot that targets 113.70 and 114.70. Distant support follows at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot that targets 113.40 and 112.40.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar collapsed on Friday following the credit problem for Northern Rock, which required emergency funding from the Bank of England. Further weakness is likely.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0040. A break below the 2.0000 level would signal a further slide to 1.9900.
Above 2.0155, strong resistance follows at 2.0190. Distant resistance is at 2.0280.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
The oversold dollar/Swiss made a strong recovery on Friday from a near 2 ½-year low on Thursday. Following a brief bounce the sell-off should continue.
Initial resistance is at 1.1924. Above it, resistance is at 1.1970. Distant resistance comes at 1.2025.
Immediate support is at 1.1855. Below 1.1803, support is seen at 1.1788 and ten at 1.1740 from a pivotal low. Distant support is at 1.1715
Oscillators are slightly bullish.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
